NBAA 2026
Last week was the annual NBAA Convention in Las Vegas. This was my 29th one to attend, and even though the attendance numbers aren’t where they were in the peak days, I still found plenty of operators to be present and found plenty of opportunities to learn about our industry and improve my business. I haven’t seen the official numbers, but it has been reported that there were about 17,000 participants and over 800 exhibitors in attendance. To put that in perspective, the peak numbers in the early 2000’s were approaching 30,000 attendants and over 1,100 exhibitors. And while the numbers are clearly down, I still find the show to be a very valuable resource for information and networking.
The OEM’s presence is down significantly, especially at the Convention Hall. And there were really no big product announcements, other than the Syberjet SJ36. But some form of that aircraft has been announced at NBAA for as long as I have been going, so the verdict is still out on that one.
The day before the Convention Hall opened, I spent the day at the IADA (International Aircraft Dealer’s Association) meeting, going through some continuing education and exchanging information with the other top Dealers and Brokers in the world. I’ll give you some notes I picked up about the current state of the pre-owned market while there:
The general consensus is that 2026 has been a unique year. In a typical year, supply of pre-owned aircraft typically climbs a bit in the spring and significantly more in the summer as new aircraft come to market and seasonal demand slackens a bit. But this year, with so much pent-up demand, that did not happen on the newer aircraft. in fact, supply is even tighter now than it was at the beginning of the year, OEM backlogs are even longer and demand continues to be strong. Long Range aircraft are in the highest demand, but super-midsized are not far behind. With more and more buyers coming to market, and no increase in inventory on the horizon, the expectation is that prices will continue to strengthen on newer model aircraft for the foreseeable future.
In order to find good aircraft in this market, you have to get creative. You can’t send out an e-blast that you are looking for a G600 and expect one to come your way. A lot of us who have been doing this for a while are finding we are back to the “blocking and tackling” of aircraft acquisitions. That means spending a lot of time on the phone, talking with other Dealers active in a particular space, as well as owners and operators to try and get advanced notice of aircraft coming to market before the rest of the world hears about it. So we spend a lot of our time “smilin’ and dialin’” in today’s market.
This also means that forward planning and patience becomes paramount. A buyer really needs to engage a Broker a minimum of 6-months before you expect to be in a position to close on an aircraft, but 9-months is even better. It will likely take months to even find an opportunity, then there may be another lag before the Seller makes an aircraft available as many are waiting for their replacement aircraft to deliver.
Where is all this increased demand coming from? That is not a simple answer but some of the contributing factors are: “Institutional Buyers” placing large orders for aircraft (fractional providers, large charter operators), the large amount of wealth generated in recent markets, the change in culture in the U.S. in particular about aircraft usage for business travel, the generational wealth transfer currently in process and the long backlogs from the OEM’s.
What is the most important thing for a buyer to understand in this market? Maybe that if you are not ready to make an offer today, you are probably not a 2026 buyer. Q4 is the strongest quarter in our year driven primarily by the bonus depreciation available on aircraft purchases. It may not be quite as big a driver as it was previously because there is no “sunset” schedule on the horizon. But, for those who had a good year financially, it’s still a big driver. Also, prices are only expected to go up from here on later model aircraft, so waiting until next year will likely only end up costing more. This is not true for older “legacy” aircraft (say aircraft older than 20 years). They are seeing modest depreciation.
If you are a Seller, there is no better time to Sell, but getting a pre-buy slot in time to close by year end is going to be tricky. You may have to compromise and go to a shop you might normally not consider. And you don’t want to slow down a transaction with unnecessarily complicated letters of intent or purchase agreements….keep your transaction simple!
Overall, it was a great show and great to catch up with a lot of old friends. It was successful in driving activity and generating interest and provided a great opportunity to have face to face meetings with clients, which is the entire basis of the private aviation industry. As AI becomes more and more a part of our daily lives and work, face to face meetings will become more important than ever. Meaning, the company that has use of a private aircraft has a huge leg up on the competition.
As always, if you have any questions, or would like any market specific information from me, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Kind regards,
Toby J. Smith
Vice President